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Business · Ryugu

Could Ryugu ever make money?

Three ways people could earn from Ryugu, from the realistic (selling good analysis) to the very long-shot (shipping its water). Each has a simple model you can edit.

  • Uses 3
  • Calculators 3
  • Price free teaser

Please read: Space uses are speculative and long-horizon. Everything here is a simplified teaching model with assumptions you can change. Nothing on this page is investment advice.

The resource-case inputs come from our Space Resource Intelligence (SRI) sample model for Ryugu. An ideal transfer there takes about 0.6 years, and no resource extraction from any small body has been demonstrated, so the near-term value is in analysis and science.

01Now

Research & data products

The opportunityTurn public telescope and mission science about Ryugu into decision-ready briefs: what is known, what is guessed, and what it would take to get there.

Who pays

Space-focused venture investors, mining and aerospace strategy teams, space agencies and family offices.

Key risks

  • Small, specialised audience
  • The underlying data is public, so the value is all in analysis and trust
  • Findings can change quickly as new papers land
Simplified modelSell reports or subscriptions. Revenue = price × buyers. Costs = per-report research time plus a yearly fixed base (tools, data, editing).

Try the numbers (per year)

Revenue / year
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Costs / year
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Profit / year
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Margin
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Break-even
– reports
Payback on up-front cost
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The XLSX has a working Summary tab. The P&L, Capex and Sensitivity tabs are locked previews: they are in the full report, coming soon. We store your email to send you the link and a few short updates about the report. Unsubscribe any time. See our privacy page.

02Now to 10 years

Science-led partnerships

The opportunityPartner with agencies and universities on studies, observation campaigns or mission concepts involving Ryugu. Revenue here comes from research budgets rather than resources.

Who pays

Space agencies, research councils and universities, through contracts and grants.

Key risks

  • Budgets depend on government priorities
  • Long, competitive proposal cycles
  • Few small-body missions are funded at a time
Simplified modelWin study contracts. Revenue = contracts × average value. Costs = delivery cost per contract plus yearly overhead.

Try the numbers (per year)

Revenue / year
–
Costs / year
–
Profit / year
–
Margin
–
Break-even
– contracts
Payback on up-front cost
–

The XLSX has a working Summary tab. The P&L, Capex and Sensitivity tabs are locked previews: they are in the full report, coming soon. We store your email to send you the link and a few short updates about the report. Unsubscribe any time. See our privacy page.

0320+ years, realistically beyond any investment horizon

In-space water supply (very long shot)

The opportunityExtract water and deliver it to customers in space, where it could be used for life support or propellant. Its value depends on future demand beyond low Earth orbit.

Who pays

Future in-space customers such as propellant depots, stations and builders. No anchor customer for space-sourced water exists today.

Key risks

  • No anchor customer for space-sourced water
  • About 0.6 years each way on an ideal transfer
  • Unproven extraction tech; no resource extraction from any small body has been demonstrated
  • Legal acceptance of space resource rights is still developing
  • Cheaper launch from Earth undercuts the value of space water
Simplified modelWater delivered per year = extraction × usable fraction × transport efficiency. Revenue = delivered kg × value. Cash only starts after development plus the trip out and back, then the result is discounted and multiplied by the chance of success.

Try the numbers (per year)

Revenue / year
–
Costs / year
–
Profit / year
–
Margin
–
Break-even
– kg of water per year
Simplified NPV
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The full SRI sample model, which also counts launch mass and timing in more detail, gives a base-case NPV of about −$1,175M (bear −$1,970M, bull $3,276M). This calculator is simpler, so its NPV differs.

The XLSX has a working Summary tab. The P&L, Capex and Sensitivity tabs are locked previews: they are in the full report, coming soon. We store your email to send you the link and a few short updates about the report. Unsubscribe any time. See our privacy page.

Space uses are speculative and long-horizon. Everything here is a simplified teaching model with assumptions you can change. Nothing on this page is investment advice.